Interpreting Polls So You Feel Better Thursday, Oct 16 2008
conservatives and politics 11:18 pm
Earlier today I made the comment that the post-debate polls have Obama winning by a really lopsided number–well over 20 points–among independent voters. One of the crazier conservatives I know responded with the following gem: “Yeah, but the people answering the polls are probably, idiots. Obama lied so many times, that I think Luciger [sic] wants to be his apprentice.” (Punctuation and spelling are his. I think he meant Lucifer.)
I didn’t watch the debate so I couldn’t comment on whether or not Obama was lying–my understanding is they both said some pretty outrageous things about health care. I don’t get the feeling he was lying so often Satan, Prince of the Air, Father of Lies, The Great Enemy, would want to become his apprentice.
But for all that, this is a pretty common reaction among the conservatives I encounter: if the polls disagree with you, disagree with the polls. When in the minority, they say “well most people are idiots.” And when they’re in the majority, they say “finally the people are seeing through the lies.” While conservatives are by no means the only people who view statistics through a heavily distorted lens, they certainly seem to do it more frequently than others.
But maybe I’m biased–I haven’t seen any presidential statistics that favor conservatives in a long time. It’s hard to selectively interpret data to be in your favor when the data actually is in your favor.
One of the things I’ve always wondered about polls is how they adjust for what the typical leanings are of people who tend to actually respond to polls.